Build Your Risk Model

Beta

Build your own risk model. Drag the sliders to change how much each factor matters, then see how your weights change the rankings — using our live data.

Factor Weights

Inflation

Inflation Rate

Annual consumer price inflation (CPI). Measures how fast prices are rising and purchasing power is eroding. Above 10% is concerning, above 50% indicates crisis.

Source: World Bank

13 · 14%

Debt/GDP

Debt-to-GDP

Government debt as a percentage of GDP. High debt limits fiscal flexibility and increases the temptation to print money, which devalues the currency.

Source: World Bank

9 · 10%

FX Volatility

Recent exchange rate movement against USD. Large swings signal market stress and make the currency unpredictable for citizens and businesses.

Source: Exchange Rate APIs

8 · 9%

Global Role

Global Currency Role

How embedded a currency is in the global financial system — reserve holdings, trade invoicing, FX turnover. Major currencies (USD, EUR) score low risk; domestic-only currencies score high.

Source: IMF COFER, BIS

8 · 9%

Capital Controls

How difficult it is to convert or move money out of this currency. Ranges from 0 (fully open, like USD) to 95 (completely closed, like North Korea). Thin FX markets amplify the risk.

Source: IMF AREAER, BIS

7 · 8%

FX Reserves

Reserve Adequacy

Foreign exchange reserves measured in months of import cover. Countries with low reserves cannot defend against speculative attacks or sudden capital outflows.

Source: World Bank

6 · 7%

Current Account

Current account balance as % of GDP — the net flow of trade and income with the rest of the world. Large deficits mean dependence on foreign capital, which can flee suddenly.

Source: World Bank

6 · 7%

Governance

Governance Quality

Rule of law, regulatory quality, and institutional effectiveness. Weak governance correlates with politicized monetary policy and less independent central banks.

Source: World Bank WGI

6 · 7%

GDP Growth

Annual real GDP growth rate. Economies in recession face rising deficits and pressure to debase the currency. Strong growth lowers risk.

Source: World Bank

5 · 5%

Bad Loans (NPL)

Non-Performing Loans

Bank non-performing loans as % of total loans. High NPL ratios signal banking stress that can trigger credit crunches, bank failures, and broader currency crises.

Source: World Bank

5 · 5%

Peg Fragility

Risk of a fixed exchange rate peg breaking. Only applies to hard pegs and currency boards (e.g. Hong Kong, Bahrain). Free-floating currencies always score 0. A peg holds until it breaks — violently.

Source: IMF AREAER

5 · 5%

Black Market

Black Market Premium

Gap between the official exchange rate and the parallel/black market rate. A premium above 10% means the official rate is a fiction — citizens cannot access foreign currency at the stated price.

Source: Curated dataset

4 · 4%

Military

Military Strength

How strong a country's military is relative to peers. Weak military capability can leave a country vulnerable to external pressure, sanctions enforcement, or territorial disputes — all of which can destabilize the currency. Not in the official model.

Source: Global Firepower, SIPRI

0 · 0%

Opacity Penalty

Data Opacity Penalty

Penalizes countries that don't report economic data. Countries hiding their numbers are almost always hiding bad news.

10 · 11%

Inflation: 14%Debt/GDP: 10%FX Volatility: 9%Global Role: 9%Capital Controls: 8%FX Reserves: 7%Current Account: 7%Governance: 7%GDP Growth: 5%Bad Loans (NPL): 5%Peg Fragility: 5%Black Market: 4%Opacity: 11%

50 countries · Sorted by your custom score (highest risk first)

#	Country	Ccy	Your Score	Level	Official	Diff
1	North Korea	KPW	100	Critical	65	+35
2	Turkmenistan	TMT	100	Critical	45	+55
3	Cuba	CUP	76	Critical	60	+16
4	Sudan	SDG	76	Critical	76	0
5	Syria	SYP	75	Critical	69	+6
6	Venezuela	VES	75	Critical	75	0
7	Eritrea	ERN	68	High	67	+1
8	Palestine	ILS	67	High	67	0
9	South Sudan	SSP	65	High	64	+1
10	Zimbabwe	ZWL	62	High	58	+4
11	Lebanon	LBP	60	High	60	0
12	Argentina	ARS	56	High	58	-2
13	Egypt	EGP	56	High	58	-2
14	Yemen	YER	56	High	57	-1
15	Burundi	BIF	55	High	55	0
16	Iran	IRR	55	High	56	-1
17	Equatorial Guinea	XAF	54	High	54	0
18	Sierra Leone	SLE	52	High	52	0
19	Timor-Leste	USD	51	High	50	+1
20	Myanmar	MMK	50	High	51	-1
21	Ukraine	UAH	50	High	50	0
22	Zambia	ZMW	50	High	50	0
23	Chad	XAF	49	Moderate	49	0
24	Haiti	HTG	49	Moderate	49	0
25	Malawi	MWK	49	Moderate	49	0
26	Dem. Rep. Congo	CDF	48	Moderate	48	0
27	Ethiopia	ETB	48	Moderate	50	-2
28	Ghana	GHS	47	Moderate	47	0
29	Afghanistan	AFN	46	Moderate	48	-2
30	Laos	LAK	46	Moderate	47	-1
31	Angola	AOA	44	Moderate	44	0
32	Liberia	LRD	44	Moderate	44	0
33	Somalia	SOS	44	Moderate	46	-2
34	Tajikistan	TJS	44	Moderate	44	0
35	Algeria	DZD	43	Moderate	43	0
36	Guinea	GNF	43	Moderate	43	0
37	Mozambique	MZN	43	Moderate	43	0
38	Nigeria	NGN	43	Moderate	46	-3
39	Bangladesh	BDT	42	Moderate	43	-1
40	Bolivia	BOB	42	Moderate	42	0
41	Côte d'Ivoire	XOF	42	Moderate	42	0
42	Guinea-Bissau	XOF	42	Moderate	42	0
43	Hungary	HUF	42	Moderate	43	-1
44	Madagascar	MGA	42	Moderate	42	0
45	Suriname	SRD	42	Moderate	42	0
46	Belarus	BYN	41	Moderate	43	-2
47	Mexico	MXN	41	Moderate	41	0
48	Niger	XOF	41	Moderate	41	0
49	Pakistan	PKR	41	Moderate	43	-2
50	Turkey	TRY	41	Moderate	42	-1

Custom scores use the same underlying data and normalization as the official FiatRisk model. Only the weights differ. The “Diff” column shows how your model diverges from the official score (positive = your model rates it riskier). This tool is for educational exploration — it does not constitute financial advice.